When do you jump ship?

In this election cycle we've seen a Democratic Party drunk with non-existent power. Napolitano and her crew are attempting to take-over one or both of the legislative bodies through a strategy that fell apart three months ago. Here's how they wanted it to work:

1. Be a targeted state in the Presidential Election. When McCain won the nomination their strategy took a blow.
2. Place several ballot initiatives on November's ballot--not to pass them but to create funding mechanisms to spend more money turning out the "right" kind of voters. Their health care initiative was the first to go, then the real payday loan reform initiative, and of course TIME and Trustlands were the final blow to this part of their strategy.
3. Maintain a couple moderate Republicans in the Senate, and even add one by electing Hershberger and then pick up a couple by targeting far right R's in primary elections. They failed to maintain the Jack Republicans in LD's 1 and 26 and didn't come close in other primaries.
4. Use all the money from national sources (DNC, DCCC, etc...) and money raised to support ballot initiatives to turn-out the base, spend $500K opposing Republicans in mostly solid R safe districts, and blow the Republican Party out of the financial waters.

I don't know about other political types out there but if I'm implementing a four part plan and the fourth part requires success of the first three, I might be a bit concerned at this point. The D's have spread themselves too thin. They're playing in districts that have no business electing Democrats.

Their strategy to take over the one or both of the chambers means they'd have to hold seats in 10, 11, 24 and 26. These seats are all in play and heavily contested. And they aren't even considering possibility of losses in 5, 17 or 23.

In order to get to 31 in the house, they need to pick up an additional seat in 10, 26, and win in at least two races in 12, 9, 20, 21.

It's likely that the D's will lose seats in both the House and the Senate.